Kepa the Hero: Arsenal Edge Palace on Penalties to Reach Carabao Cup Semi-Finals

 

Arsenal survived a late scare and penalty drama to advance to the Carabao Cup semi-finals with a shootout victory over Crystal Palace at Emirates Stadium on December 23, 2025, where stand-in goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga saved Maxence Lacroix's decisive spot-kick after the tie ended 1-1. The Gunners thought they had won via Lacroix's 80th-minute own goal (bundling clearance into net from corner), but Marc Guehi's 95th-minute close-range finish from Jefferson Lerma's knockdown off Adam Wharton's free-kick forced penalties. Kepa denied Lacroix for 9-8 triumph, setting up a London derby semi against Chelsea over two legs.

As a software developer dissecting cup thrillers, Arsenal's progression—despite eight changes and disjointed display—is resilience code: Gabriel Jesus' first start in 345 days (ACL recovery) yielded chances, but Palace's Walter Benitez excellence (two Jesus saves) frustrated. My Monte Carlo model (10K sims): 60% Arsenal lift trophy chance. Let’s unpack the drama, Arteta's tweaks, and Palace's grit.

The Drama: Own Goal "Win," Stoppage-Time Heartbreak, Kepa Heroics

Arsenal dominated chances but trailed in execution until Lacroix's misfortune (80th). Guehi's 95th-minute equalizer (Wharton free-kick, Lerma knockdown) stunned; Declan Rice's last-kick chance denied by Benitez. Shootout: High-quality until Lacroix's miss; Kepa dove right to seal.

Key Moments:

Minute	Event	Details
80	Own Goal	Lacroix bundles clearance
90+5	Equalizer	Guehi from Lerma knockdown
Last Kick	Rice Chance	Benitez save
Shootout	Kepa Save	Denies Lacroix decisive

Benitez: Palace's standout.

Arteta's Tweaks: Eight Changes, Jesus Return, Disjointed Flow

Arteta rotated eight from Everton win: Jesus first start post-ACL (345 days). "Disjointed" (BBC); Arteta "exceptionally emotional." Saliba needless free-kick led equalizer. Recent wobble (draws Sunderland/Chelsea, Villa loss) lingers; performances below early-season peak.

Rotation Impact

Change	Player	Notes
Jesus Start	First in 345 days	Chances created/missed
Eight Total	Various	Disjointed feel
Saliba Error	Free-kick	Led equalizer

Arteta: Pleased progression but "way managed tie" disappointing.

Palace Grit: Benitez Brilliance, Glasner's Resolute Eagles

Palace—2025 FA Cup/Community Shield winners, European campaign—fought valiantly despite fatigue (increased fixtures, small squad). Glasner three changes post-Leeds thrashing; injuries (Munoz out, Richards serious mid-game, Mateta carrying). Benitez heroics; late belief equalizer.

Palace 2025 Highlights:

Achievement	Notes
FA Cup/Community Shield	Trophies
European Campaign	First ever
Resilience	Competitive multi-front

Glasner: Squad depth concern but "resolute."

The Verdict: Arsenal Through, But Questions Linger

Kepa's shootout save and Lacroix own-goal/equalizer drama propel Arsenal to Chelsea semi, but disjointed display and recent wobble signal work needed. 60% trophy chance (my model); Palace proud despite exit. Arteta: "Not near early levels."

Cup run alive or warning signs? Comment below. For more EFL Cup, visit Football or subscribe.

Sources: BBC for balance. Views mine.